Rate Lock Advisory

Monday, August 8th

Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory, reacting favorably to this weekend’s news that the Senate passed the bill named the Inflation Reduction Act. Stocks are showing early gains with the Dow up 300 points and the Nasdaq up 178 points. The bond market is currently up 16/32 (2.76%), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point if compared to Friday’s early pricing.



30 yr - 2.76%







Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock




There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today. The rest of the week brings us four pieces of monthly and quarterly economic data, including a couple of highly important inflation releases. In addition to the data, there are also two Treasury auctions set that may influence rates midweek.



Productivity and Costs (Quarterly)

Activities start tomorrow morning with the release of Employee Productivity and Costs data for the second quarter. It helps us track employee output per hour worked. High levels of productivity are believed to allow the economy to grow with less threat of inflation. This is one of the few reports where the stronger headline number is favorable news for rates. Forecasts have productivity falling at a 4.5% annual rate. A much smaller decline in productivity and a noticeably smaller rise in labor costs than 9.3% would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates.



Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Overall, Wednesday is the best candidate for most active day for rates due to the importance of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the afternoon auction results. That said, it is fairly safe to assume that we will have another week with plenty of movement in rates. The importance of some of the data makes it highly likely rates will again move noticeably during the week. Therefore, it would be prudent to watch the markets closely if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.